Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Is the Senate Really in Play?

Charlie Cook has some eye opening news over at National Journal - the Democrats may not have long to enjoy their 60 vote super-majority.  Cook counts Harry Reid (NV), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Christopher Dodd (CT), and Michael Bennett (CO) as endangered and sees a real chance for Republicans in DE and NY, not to mention the open seat in IL that has been tainted by scandal. That's 7 seats. Now add Arlen Specter (PA) and Barbara Boxer (CA) as each may face serious challenges as well - that totals 9 seats. If Republicans ran the board then Democrats would have a bare majority of 51 to 49 - and one of those seats would belong to Joe Lieberman - so let's say 50 to 49 to 1 - and Lieberman recently hinted that he may join the GOP... Now, this of course assumes that current trends hold and that the GOP does run the board (both are unlikely) - but the fact that such an outcome is even possible just speaks to how far the Democrats have fallen since their high in November of last year... the truth is, if the GOP gains as few as 4 seats President Obama's agenda will need to be drastically altered. Current polling already shows the Republicans within striking distance of recapturing the House.

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